Card Strategy

Sign-up bonuses:
the only math that matters

⁦100,000 points⁩ is not an offer. It's a headline. Here's the short calculation I run on every card before deciding whether it's worth an application — and the three costs almost everyone leaves out.

Reviewed September 2026 · Justin Rasmussen
The only number that matters is the bonus's value minus its total cost, divided by what that application costs you in opportunity. In practice: take the points, multiply by a realistic cents-per-point figure for how you'll actually redeem them, subtract the annual fee and any spending you'd have to manufacture, and then ask what else you could have applied for instead. A 100,000-point bonus you can't reach the spend on is worth zero. A 60,000-point bonus on a card you'd hold anyway often beats it.

The 60-second version

Value the points at how you'll actually use them

Not at the highest cents-per-point figure a blog has ever achieved. If you redeem through a portal at 1 cent, value them at 1 cent. If you genuinely transfer to partners, 1.8–2 cents is a fair planning number. Be honest — this is where most people inflate the answer by double.

Subtract the first-year annual fee

Not the fee net of credits you hope to use. The fee. Then add back only the credits you are certain you'll use, because you already spend that money on that exact thing.

Check the minimum spend against your real calendar

A $8,000-in-three-months requirement is trivial for a contractor buying materials and impossible for a household with a $2,000 monthly budget. The requirement isn't hard or easy in the abstract — only relative to what you were already going to spend.

Ask what the application slot costs you

This is the step nobody takes. Every application uses up something scarce: a Chase 5/24 slot, one of Amex's once-per-lifetime bonuses, your one Capital One approval for six months. That's the real price of the card.

A worked example

Two offers, same week. Which one is better?

 Card ACard B
Headline bonus100,000 points60,000 points
Minimum spend$15,000 in 3 months$4,000 in 3 months
Annual fee$595$95
Value at 1.9¢/point$1,900$1,140
Less annual fee$1,305$1,045
Can you actually hit the spend?Only if you have $5,000/month of card-able spendYes, for most households

Illustrative figures, not a specific current offer. Welcome offers change constantly — always check the live terms. Reviewed September 2026.

On paper Card A wins by $260. In reality, for most people, Card A is worth nothing, because missing the minimum spend means no bonus at all — and you've still paid $595 and burned an application slot. Card B is the better card for almost everyone who isn't already spending $5,000 a month on a card.

The three costs people forget

  • The application slot. With Chase, five personal cards in 24 months locks you out. With Amex, each bonus is once per lifetime. With Capital One, one approval every six months. The bonus you take today is the bonus you can't take later.
  • Manufactured spend you didn't need. Buying things to hit a minimum is a loss dressed as a win. If you need to spend $3,000 you weren't going to spend, the bonus just cost you $3,000.
  • Interest, if any balance carries. This ends the conversation. At typical card APRs, one month of carried balance can wipe out an entire welcome bonus. Points are only worth chasing if the balance is paid in full, every month, without exception.

When a big fee is worth it

Premium cards aren't a trap — they're a bet that you'll use what they include. The test is simple: list the card's credits, cross off every one you wouldn't have spent that money on anyway, and total what's left. If the remainder plus the bonus clearly beats the fee, it's a good card for you. If you're talking yourself into a dining credit you'll forget about, it isn't.

The order question

Once you've decided a card is worth having, there's a second decision that matters just as much: when. For most people the answer is Chase first, while you're under 5/24, because it's the only issuer that can lock you out entirely. Then Amex, carefully, because those bonuses don't come back. Then Capital One and Citi.

Each program's rules are laid out in its own guide — Chase, Amex, Capital One and Citi.

Common questions

Does applying for a card hurt my credit score?

A single application typically causes a small, temporary dip from the hard inquiry, and the new account lowers your average account age. Both effects fade. The larger and longer-lasting factor is your credit utilization, which a new card's added limit usually improves. Carrying a balance to 'help' your score is a myth and an expensive one.

What counts toward a minimum spend requirement?

Purchases. Not cash advances, not balance transfers, not usually gift card purchases from the issuer itself, and not the annual fee on most cards. Taxes and fees on a purchase do count. Check the specific card's terms — issuers differ on the edges.

Is it worth paying a fee to meet minimum spend?

Rarely, and only with a real number in front of you. Paying a 2.5% processing fee on a tax bill to earn a 100,000-point bonus can be worth it if the bonus is large relative to the fee. Paying 3% to earn 2x on ordinary spending never is.

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